Saturday, September 24, 2011

Week 3 NFL Picks

Sean really cleaned up in week two going 10-4, while Stephen barely broke even at 7-7. Both pushed on Dallas and Buffalo. To everyone's surprise neither of us lost our shirts to open up this line of posts. Let's see if we can keep rolling and maybe make some coin in the process.


San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2.5):

Stephen:  Both teams have split their first two games, but neither seems to be going anywhere. I think San Fran has far more talent and far fewer felons. I will take the 49ers with the points on the road.

Sean:  Andy "The Red Rifle" Dalton is having a pretty nice year for a pretty mediocre team thus far.  I look for that to continue against another mediocre team that has to travel half-way across the country for this one. Cincy.


Houston at New Orleans (-4):

Stephen: This is an exciting early season match-up between two of the front runners in the young season. The Saints are explosive on offense and have been able to put pressure on the quarterback on defense, two areas the young Texans have historically struggled with. If the Texans can go in to The Big Easy and come out with a win, they really will be moved into the AFC elite, unfortunately I think the short flight back to Houston will be a disappointing one. Saints to cover at home.

Sean:  I wanna say that we have one more week to think that the Texans are for real this year.  It seems every year they start off pretty well then everything (including my hopes and dreams) comes crashing down around them.  I want to say that is put off for another week but I've got to agree with Stephen.


NY Giants at Philadelphia (-7.5):

Stephen: These two perennial powers in the NFC East are both 1-1, but have had far different play on the field. The Eagles are fast and explosive and a late fluke hit and Vick injury away from being undefeated. The Giants on the other hand, are faking injuries even while the real injury list keeps filling out. The Giants have too many defensive holes to keep up with the speedy Eagles, especially on the road. Eagles to cover.

Sean:  The Eagles are over-rated.  They can't protect the quarterback.  They don't have a great linebacker presence.  And they've had to beef up security at The Linc because of unconfirmed reports of walrus hunters out to get Andy Reid.  They've got problems, but they still thank their lucky stars every day that they are not the New York Football Giants.  Eli Manning is going to have three turnovers in this game.  I think that's barely enough for the Eagles to cover though.  Eagles by 10.


Miami at Cleveland (-2.5):

Stephen:  Not too many people are going to care about this match up outside their respective area codes. Neither team has been impressive so far, and neither will make much noise in the end. I think the Dolphins are the more talented team and they are being given points, even if it is on the road. I like Miami with the points.

Sean:  Chad Henne might go for another 400 yards on Sunday.  Hell, Colt McCoy could throw for 400 as well.  Both these teams are awful.  High scoring, mistake-filled contest.  I will take Miami and the over.


Denver at Tennessee (-6.5):

Stephen:  Here is another match up of two of the 18 1-1 teams. Tennessee looked awful against a terrible Jacksonville team and then dominated a very good Ravens team, so they are hard go read, but apparently much better at home. Denver could not really impress in two home games and now they head out on the road. I like Tennessee to win this one, but 6.5 is a lot to cover for such an inconsistent team. I will take Orton to play better away from the hostile home fans and Denver with the points.

Sean:  I'm not sure why I'm going to pick Tennessee to cover this spread.  Everything in my body is screaming at me that they might not score 7, much less beat a team by 7.  However, their opponent is Denver.  Oh wait, that's why I'm picking Tennessee by 6.5.


Detroit (-3.5) at Minnesota:

Stephen: Detroit is the hot young team in the NFL right now, and rightfully so with impressive wins at home and on the road. This marks the first time in a decade that the Lions have been favored in a road game. Minnesota has two disappointing losses and they were in both games late, but their lack of any kind of passing attack after bringing in McNabb is making them too one dimensional, even if they do have the best running back in the game. I like Detroit to cover.

Sean:  Adrian Peterson needs to touch the ball 45 times this game for them to have a chance.  I thought before the season started that he may slow down a step this year.  I was wrong.  He is as electric as ever.  I love watching that man run with the ball in his hands.  Unfortunately, he will not touch the ball 45 times.  Detroit will control the clock in the second half while the Vikings try to catch up with McNabb throwing the ball.  Detroit covers and goes 3-0 for the first time in 31 years.  Wow, that felt strange to write.

Jacksonville at Carolina (-3.5):

Stephen:  Rookies Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert both get the start in this one. Newton has looked impressive so far throwing for over 800 yards in just two games. Gabbert got the starting job this week because Jacksonville's previous starter put up a 1.8 QB rating before getting pulled last week. Newton has proved that he can move his offense and Carolina's defense is much improved, plus they have the home feild advantage. I will take Carolina to cover at home.

Sean:  This is Cam Newton's last week where he puts up stupid numbers.  Teams will have to start realizing that he is not just a runner.  You can't stack the line and make him throw it into one-on-one coverage.  Because he will.  I think he's proved that.  Look for him to put up another 300+ yard game and torch the Jags.

Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5):

Stephen: Wow, 14.5 is a huge number, but the Chiefs have already been out scored 89-10 and lost both their best offensive and defensive players. Not much needed to say about this one, Chargers cover at home.

Sean:  Agreed.  It hurts to be a Chiefs fan right now.


NY Jets (-3.5) at Oakland:

Stephen: The Jets once again have one of the NFL's top defenses, but their offense is highly inconsistent. The Raiders have beaten a bad Denver team and lost a tight one on the road to the surprising Bills. Teams generally have a tough time traveling from one coast to the other, and I see this one being no different. I do think the Jets are the better team and may come out ahead, but I like the Raiders with the points at home.

Sean:  This is one of the more fun games to pick this week.  3.5 is about right.  At three points I definitely take the Jets but it's a toss-up for me right now.  The Jets are the better team but I'm not sold on them.  I also don't think that the Raiders are all that bad either.  Give me the Jets to cover


Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis:

Stephen:  Baltimore was impressive at home in week one and terrible on the road in week two. They go out on the road again in week three, but this team has too many veterans and far too much pride not to make this a bounce back game. I like the Ravens to cover and cover handily.

Sean:  I wrote about how St. Louis was so banged-up in last weeks picks.  That's still the case.  If they were even halfway healthy I think they have a chance to surprise the Ravens this week.  The Ravens don't cover handily but they cover.


Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-2):

Stephen: In the preseason predictions, Atlanta was a lot of people's favorite to make the Super Bowl, but a pounding at the hands of the Bears on the road and a less than impressive win at home against the Eagles have people losing their confidence. The Bucs are a young explosive team that have also been inconsistent, but their QB Josh Freeman has grown into a real leader. I believe Tampa Bay will be able to exploit the weaknesses in the Falcons defense and get the win at home. Tampa to cover.

Sean:  I am predicting that Josh Freeman does not throw for 300 yards yet again.  Yeah, they're a young talented team and yes, they have the same record as Atlanta.  But you call the win against the Eagles unimpressive but Tampa Bay squeaked by a pretty bad team.  Give me Atlanta outright.  I can't believe Tampa is giving up points here.


Arizona (-3.5) at Seattle:

Stephen: So far Seattle looks like they are battling with Kansas City to be the worst team in the league, but they always play better at home. Arizona is my pick to win this division, but have looked less than impressive in the first two weeks. I think this will be a close one until the end. I am not sure the Cards will be able to cover 3.5, so I will take Seattle with the points at home.

Sean:  I like your pick here.  You are dead on in your analysis about both teams.  In at least one game I need to pick against you for no reason whatsoever.  This is that game.


Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago:

Stephen: The Packers are the defending Super Bowl champs, but people forget that Chicago won the division last year. The Bears have been like Jeckel and Hyde so far through two weeks, and Jay Cutler has already taken a beating. This game is going to all come down to how that Bears line can limit the hits on their embattled QB. If he has time, Cutler can pick apart the Packers defense. Too bad he won't have time. Green Bay to cover.

Sean:  I wouldn't touch this with a pole if I wasn't writing a blog about it.  I'm going to ride the packers all season though.  Give me the Pack to cover on the road against a big rival.....That doesn't sound great.


Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis:

Stephen: Pittsburgh has looked good at home and bad on the road and this is another road trip. Luckily the road trip is to Indy where the Colts could not even hold off the lowly Browns. Pittsburgh to cover this ungodly number.

Sean:  Another huge number that may not be high enough.  I've got to take Pitt to cover.


Washington at Dallas (-5.5):

Stephen:  The unbreakable Tony Romo looks to be ready for Monday night, but that is no lock. Plus one of his most explosive weapons in Miles Austin is out for a month. The injuries are really staking up for the 'Boys    with the division leading Redskins coming to town. I think the the Cowboys will rise up for this game, but 5.5 is a big number. I hate to say this, but I am going with the Redskins with the points.

Sean:  If Tony Romo doesn't play then this line is ridiculous.  Dallas will most likely lose outright.  If he does play then this line is ridiculous.  He's not going to be 100%.  The Cowboys haven't looked great and the Redskins are somehow leading the division at 2-0.  They may win if Romo plays but they probably won't cover.  There is absolutely no reason to pick the Cowboys to cover that crazy spread except that I hate the Redskins. Dallas



Stephen:                                  Sean:
49ers (+2.5)                            Bengals (-2.5)
Saints (-4)                               Saints (-4)
Eagles (-7.5)                           Eagles (-7.5)
Dolphins (+2.5)                       Dolphins (+2.5)
Denver (+6.5)                         Titans (-6.5)
Lions (-3.5)                             Lions (-3.5)
Panthers (-3.5)                        Panthers (3.5)
Chargers (-14.5)                     Chargers (-14.5)
Raiders (+3.5)                         Jets (-3.5)
Ravens (-4)                             Ravens (-4)
Bucs (-2)                                 Falcons (+2)
Seahawks (+3.5)                     Arizona (-3.5)
Packers (-3.5)                         Packers (-3.5)
Steelers (-10.5)                       Steelers (-10.5)
Redskins (+5.5)                       Cowboys (-5.5)


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